OBJECTIVE

Analytical assessment of the main epidemiological trends of malignant neoplasms (MN) in the Siberian Federal District (SFD) from 2012 to 2022 and the calculation of a scientifically based medium-term forecast of tumor-specific morbidity and mortality until 2030.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Based on state statistics, a retrospective analysis of morbidity, the early diagnosis rate of MN, the proportion of patients registered for 5 years or more since diagnosis, one-year case fatality, and mortality rates in the SFD and its constituent regions was conducted. Standard methods for analyzing time series were used, and the statistical significance of differences was assessed at a confidence level of p<0.05. Forecasting morbidity and mortality until 2030 was performed using the exponential smoothing method based on data from 2008—2022.

RESULTS

During the study period, MN morbidity in the SFD increased by 13.9% (p<0.001), with the crude rate reaching 433.4 per 100.000; the proportion of MN detected at stages I–II increased by 19.9%, reaching 57.9%; the one-year case fatality rate decreased from 28.9% to 21.2%; the number of patients under follow-up for 5 years or more since diagnosis increased by 15.3%, reaching 58%; a 4% increase (p<0.001) in the crude mortality rate and a 12% decrease (p<0.001) in the standardized rate were observed. The medium-term forecast of MN morbidity and mortality in the SFD indicates that the crude morbidity rate will continue to rise, with an estimated 10.7% increase from 2023 to 2030, reaching 488.7 per 100.000. The crude mortality rate will increase by 3% to 221.3 per 100.000, while the standardized rate will decrease by 7.4% to 109.0 per 100.000.

CONCLUSION

Mortality from MN depends on morbidity levels. Improving cancer care for the population is possible by enhancing the quality of preventive measures and raising public awareness about health-preserving behaviors and cancer vigilance.