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Belov Yu.V.

RNTsKh im. akad. B.V. Petrovskogo RAMN

Komarov R.N.

Clinic for Aortic and Cardiovascular Surgery, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University

Gerasimov A.N.

Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia

Alekseev I.A.

RNTsKh im. akad. B.V. Petrovskogo RAMN, Moskva

Vikent’yev V.V.

Chair of Cardiovascular Surgery and Interventional Cardiology (head — acad.of RAS Yu.V. Belov), acad. B.V. Petrovskiy Russian Research Centre of Surgery, Chair of Medical Informatics and Statistics (head — prof. A.N. Gerasimov) of I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University

Shapieva A.N.

Chair of Medical Informatics and Statistics, B.V. Petrovsky Russian Research Center of Surgery, Moscow, Russia

Isaev R.M.

Chair of Cardiovascular Surgery and Interventional Cardiology (head — acad.of RAS Yu.V. Belov), acad. B.V. Petrovskiy Russian Research Centre of Surgery, Chair of Medical Informatics and Statistics (head — prof. A.N. Gerasimov) of I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University

EuroSCORE model ARCH: ICU-stay duration prognosis after aortic arch surgery

Authors:

Belov Yu.V., Komarov R.N., Gerasimov A.N., Alekseev I.A., Vikent’yev V.V., Shapieva A.N., Isaev R.M.

More about the authors

Journal: Russian Journal of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery. 2016;9(2): 35‑45

DOI: 10.17116/kardio20169235-45

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Table of contents

EUROSCORE MODEL ARCH: ICU-STAY DURATION PROGNOSIS AFTER AORTIC ARCH SURGERY
EUROSCORE MODEL ARCH: ICU-STAY DURATION PROGNOSIS AFTER AORTIC ARCH SURGERY

To cite this article:

Belov YuV, Komarov RN, Gerasimov AN, Alekseev IA, Vikent’yev VV, Shapieva AN, Isaev RM. EuroSCORE model ARCH: ICU-stay duration prognosis after aortic arch surgery. Russian Journal of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery. 2016;9(2):35‑45. (In Russ.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/kardio20169235-45

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Подписка 2026 Кардиология и сердечно-сосудистая хирургия (Russian Journal of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery)
 
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Abstract:

Aim. To develop prognostic scale of intensive care unit (ICU) stay over 5 days after aortic arch surgery based on retrospective analysis of patients. Material and methods. From November 1998 to September 2012 in the department of aortic surgery of Petrovsky Russian Research Center of Surgery 71 patients with aortic arch aneurysm were examined and operated. We have analyzed 134 potential risk factors including 73 from EuroSCORE scale and 41 additional specific for aortic arch surgery in order to predict duration of ICU-stay over 5 days. This scale was called EuroSCORE model ARCH. Results. Multivariate analysis found that preoperative duration of systole (QT), resternotomy and index of left ventricular end-systolic volume (LV iESV) may be used to predict duration of ICU-stay over 5 days after aortic arch surgery. Patient’s severity index (IS) was calculated using following formula «IS = –1.421 + 4.9429 ∙ «QT» + 0.402 ∙ «resternotomy» + –0.00786 ∙ «LV iESV». In this formula resternotomy = 1 if it was present after surgery and resternotomy = 0 otherwise. Greater index of severity was associated with more probable ICU-stay over 5 days. Index of severity 0.2; 0.2 - 0.55; over 0.55 corresponds to 0.00%, 26.67%, 90.00% probability of ICU-stayover 5 days respectively. Conclusion. EuroSCORE model ARCH scale may be used to predict ICU-stay duration over 5 days after aortic arch surgery (ROC - curve of death prediction 90.2%).

Keywords:

risk factors
risk stratification scale
aortic arch
surgical risk
EuroSCORE

Authors:

Belov Yu.V.

RNTsKh im. akad. B.V. Petrovskogo RAMN

Komarov R.N.

Clinic for Aortic and Cardiovascular Surgery, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University

Gerasimov A.N.

Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia

Alekseev I.A.

RNTsKh im. akad. B.V. Petrovskogo RAMN, Moskva

Vikent’yev V.V.

Chair of Cardiovascular Surgery and Interventional Cardiology (head — acad.of RAS Yu.V. Belov), acad. B.V. Petrovskiy Russian Research Centre of Surgery, Chair of Medical Informatics and Statistics (head — prof. A.N. Gerasimov) of I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University

Shapieva A.N.

Chair of Medical Informatics and Statistics, B.V. Petrovsky Russian Research Center of Surgery, Moscow, Russia

Isaev R.M.

Chair of Cardiovascular Surgery and Interventional Cardiology (head — acad.of RAS Yu.V. Belov), acad. B.V. Petrovskiy Russian Research Centre of Surgery, Chair of Medical Informatics and Statistics (head — prof. A.N. Gerasimov) of I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University

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