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Revich B.A.

FGBU "Institut narodnokhoziaĭstvennogo prognozirovaniia" RAN

Shaposhnikov D.А.

Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 117418

Pershagen G.

Karolinska Institute, Solna, Sweden, 17177

New epidemiological model for assessment of the impact of extremely hot weather and air pollution on mortality (in case of the Moscow heat wave of 2010)

Authors:

Revich B.A., Shaposhnikov D.А., Pershagen G.

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Journal: Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2015;18(5): 29‑33

DOI: 10.17116/profmed201518529-33

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To cite this article:

Revich BA, Shaposhnikov DА, Pershagen G. New epidemiological model for assessment of the impact of extremely hot weather and air pollution on mortality (in case of the Moscow heat wave of 2010). Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2015;18(5):29‑33. (In Russ.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/profmed201518529-33

 
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Aim. To assess the impact of extremely hot weather and air pollution on mortality rates among Moscow residents. Material and methods. Daily counts of cause-specific deaths were studied with time series in Moscow in the period 2006 and 2012. The Poisson regression model was used to estimate the contributions of air pollution, hot temperatures, and interactions between these two factors to excess non-accidental mortality during the 2010 heat wave. Comparison of actual and predicted numbers of daily deaths during the two-year follow-up period was used to estimate long-term health impacts of the 2010 heat wave on mortality. Results. The relative contributions of extremely hot weather, air pollution, and their interactions to elevated mortality during 2010 Moscow heat wave were calculated for the first time. Conclusion. The results of this study were later used to assess the magnitude of public health hazard during heat waves and extreme air pollution episodes.

Keywords:

extreme heat
heat wave
air pollution
РМ10
mortality
Moscow
forest fires

Authors:

Revich B.A.

FGBU "Institut narodnokhoziaĭstvennogo prognozirovaniia" RAN

Shaposhnikov D.А.

Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 117418

Pershagen G.

Karolinska Institute, Solna, Sweden, 17177

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