Population models for the general and primary incidence of borderline mental disorders in the Russian Federation in 1992

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OBJECTIVE

To develop mathematical models at the population level to assess the relationship of incidence and prevalence of borderline mental disorders (BMD) of the Russian population with demographic, socio-economic factors and the human resources of mental health care in 1992—2022.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We used official demographic and socio-economic data at the population level, as well as analytical data from specialized medical and research institutions. Methods of systemic data analysis and statistical analysis were used to develop linear models of the relationship between the factors and BMD incidence rates. The least squares method was used to build a nonlinear logistic model of the BMD prevalence in the population using the MS Excel Solver add-in.

RESULTS

Socio-economic and demographic factors that significantly affect the BMD prevalence and incidence in the period under review have been identified. Regression linear models with a high level of significance for the BMD incidence and prevalence in the Russian population in the period 1992—2022 were developed.

A logistic model has been developed to predict the prevalence of BMD with changes in the human resources of mental health care and the population size. The logistic model was used to estimate the marginal level of BMD prevalence for the Russian population. Examples of the use of the obtained models to predict incidence rates are given.

CONCLUSION

Operational (using linear models) and long-term (based on the logistic model) estimates of BMD incidence and prevalence in the Russian population make it possible to consider the influence of demographic and socio-economic factors on the population’s life and the human resources of the mental care system.

Keywords:

mental health

borderline mental disorders

population

prevalence

incidence

mathematical model

prediction

Authors:

Mitikhin V.G.

Mental Health Research Centre

ORCID: 0000-0002-9502-5395

Solokhina T.A.

Mental Health Research Centre

ORCID: 0000-0003-3235-2476

Received:

21.08.2024

Accepted:

16.10.2024

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