OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors associated with the development of the main subtypes of IS in men aged 45 to 74 years.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study included 380 men, aged 45 to 74 years, including 247 inpatients with a diagnosis of IS in the area of the carotid artery (main group) and 133 patients with a diagnosis of chronic cerebral ischemia, stage I—II (comparison group). To build multivariate predictive models to assess the influence of risk factors on the development of the main subtypes of IS, the method of logistic regression with stepwise exclusion of variables according to the Wald algorithm was used.

RESULTS

A prognostic model of atherothrombotic stroke revealed that the history of TIA increases the risk of stroke by 14.2 times (OR=14.222; 95% CI [2.911—69.497], p=0.001), atherostenosis of the internal carotid arteries by 13.2 times (OR=13.216; 95% CI [3.092—56.493], p<0.001), an increase in the degree of hypertension by one unit increases the risk of stroke by more than 5 times (OR=5.755; 95% CI [3.326—9.958], p<0.001). When constructing a prognostic model for the development of cardiogenic embolic stroke, it is shown that atrial fibrillation increases the risk of stroke by more than 22 times (OR=22.572; 95% CI [7.061—72.163], p<0.001), the of history TIA by 16.3 times (OR=16.329; 95% CI [1.678—158.862], p=0.016), coronary artery disease by more than 3 times (OR=3.662; 95% CI for [1.159—11.571], p=0.027), an increase in the degree of hypertension by one unit increases the risk of stroke by more than 3 times (OR=3.955; 95% CI [2.228—7.021], p<0.001). When constructing a prognostic model for the development of lacunar stroke, it is shown that an increase in the degree of hypertension by one unit and the history of IS increase the risk of stroke by more than 7 times (OR=7.637; 95% CI [4.092—14.251], p<0.001) and (OR=7.183; 95% CI [1.118—46.137], p=0.038), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Differences in the significance of risk factors between groups of patients with the main subtypes of IS were revealed.