The site of the Media Sphera Publishers contains materials intended solely for healthcare professionals.
By closing this message, you confirm that you are a certified medical professional or a student of a medical educational institution.
Eliava Sh.Sh.
Burdenko Neurosurgical Center
Konovalov An.N.
Burdenko Neurosurgical Center
Grebenev F.V.
Burdenko Neurosurgical Center
Shevchenko E.V.
Sklifosovsky Research Institute for Emergency Medicine
Savinkov R.S.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University;
Institute of Computational Mathematics. G.I. Marchuk of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
Grebennikov D.S.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University;
Institute of Computational Mathematics. G.I. Marchuk of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
Zheltkova V.V.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University;
Institute of Computational Mathematics. G.I. Marchuk of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
Bocharov G.A.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University;
Institute of Computational Mathematics. G.I. Marchuk of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
Telyshev D.V.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University
Screening of patients with cerebral aneurysms: mathematical analysis and economic justification
Journal: Burdenko's Journal of Neurosurgery. 2023;87(1): 15‑24
Views: 2235
Downloaded: 96
To cite this article:
Eliava ShSh, Konovalov AnN, Grebenev FV, et al. . Screening of patients with cerebral aneurysms: mathematical analysis and economic justification. Burdenko's Journal of Neurosurgery.
2023;87(1):15‑24. (In Russ., In Engl.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/neiro20238701115
Subarachnoid hemorrhages due to rupture of cerebral aneurysms have a high risk of disability and mortality. Screening of the population to detect aneurysms in patients with risk factors is currently not carried out in Russia. However, the detection of clinically silent aneurysms and their subsequent prophylactic surgical treatment are justified, according to numerous studies.
Demonstrate the clinical and economic feasibility of screening the population (including first-line relatives) for cerebral aneurysms using an economic and mathematical model of the RF virtual population.
Mathematical modeling was carried out using an algorithm that implements a discrete Markov chain. The virtual population consisted of 145 million people (the population of the Russian Federation). Magnetic resonance angiography 3DTOF was chosen as a screening method. Virtual patients underwent preventive surgical treatment in case of detection of aneurysm during screening. The number of aneurysms in the population, the number of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), the cost and outcomes of treatment, and the risk of disability were calculated.
In the case of screening and preventive surgical treatment of aneurysms, there is a decrease in the number of aSAH by 14.3% (37.5% in first-line relatives (RPLR), which affects the reduction in mortality due to aSAH by 14.4% (24.1% in The total number of disabled people is reduced by 1.5% (5.1% for the RPHR). A shift in the structure of disability towards greater labor and social adaptation of patients was noted. An economic analysis for the entire population showed that screening saves 7.7 billion annually rubles, including in the population consisting of RPLR — 4.9 billion rubles.
The created mathematical model of the virtual population demonstrated that screening and prophylactic treatment of cerebral aneurysms makes it possible to reduce the number of aSAH and associated mortality among the entire population and in the RPLR group. The number of individuals with severe disabilities is decreasing. Thus, population screening for the detection of cerebral aneurysms may be clinically effective and cost-effective in the general population, especially in RPCR.
Keywords:
Authors:
Eliava Sh.Sh.
Burdenko Neurosurgical Center
Konovalov An.N.
Burdenko Neurosurgical Center
Grebenev F.V.
Burdenko Neurosurgical Center
Shevchenko E.V.
Sklifosovsky Research Institute for Emergency Medicine
Savinkov R.S.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University;
Institute of Computational Mathematics. G.I. Marchuk of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
Grebennikov D.S.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University;
Institute of Computational Mathematics. G.I. Marchuk of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
Zheltkova V.V.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University;
Institute of Computational Mathematics. G.I. Marchuk of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
Bocharov G.A.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University;
Institute of Computational Mathematics. G.I. Marchuk of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
Telyshev D.V.
Institute of Computer Science and Mathematical Modeling World-Class Research Center “Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare” Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University
Received:
20.06.2022
Accepted:
18.11.2022
List of references:
Close metadata
Email Confirmation
An email was sent to test@gmail.com with a confirmation link. Follow the link from the letter to complete the registration on the site.
Email Confirmation
Log in to the site using your account in one of the services
We use cооkies to improve the performance of the site. By staying on our site, you agree to the terms of use of cооkies. To view our Privacy and Cookie Policy, please. click here.