Modeling and predicting chronic non-communicable diseases based on medical and social risk factors in older then working age people

Galiullin A.N.; Gaifullina R.F.; Galiullin D.A.; Yusupova L.A.; Galimzyanov A.F.; Yusupov A.R.

doi:https://doi.org/10.17116/profmed20252804167

A.N. Galiullin

Kazan Federal University, Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology

ORCID: 0000-0002-1294-4055

R.F. Gaifullina

Kazan Federal University, Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology

ORCID: 0000-0002-0922-5850

D.A. Galiullin

Charitable Foundation «Yardem — Help»

ORCID: 0000-0002-8878-2777

L.A. Yusupova

Kazan State Medical Academy — Branch Campus of the Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education

ORCID: 0000-0001-8937-2158

A.F. Galimzyanov

Interregional clinical diagnostic center

ORCID: 0000-0003-1578-7814

A.R. Yusupov

Kazan State Medical University

ORCID: 0009-0005-5625-4565

Modeling and predicting chronic non-communicable diseases based on medical and social risk factors in older then working age people

Authors:

A.N. Galiullin, R.F. Gaifullina, D.A. Galiullin, L.A. Yusupova, A.F. Galimzyanov, A.R. Yusupov

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Journal: Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2025;28(4): 67‑74

DOI: 10.17116/profmed20252804167

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To cite this article:

Galiullin AN, Gaifullina RF, Galiullin DA, Yusupova LA, Galimzyanov AF, Yusupov AR. Modeling and predicting chronic non-communicable diseases based on medical and social risk factors in older then working age people. Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2025;28(4):67‑74. (In Russ.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/profmed20252804167

Подписка 2026 Профилактическая медицина (Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine)

Использование инфографики авторами научных работ

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Abstract:

This article presents new data on modeling and predicting the occurrence and development of multiple chronic non-communicable diseases (MCNCD) based on medical and social risk factors (RF) data. The method of determining the strength of the RF influence and developing a prediction matrix for predicting the occurrence of MCNCD in people over working age (POWA) is described. The proposed methodology helps to identify the strength of the RF influence on the occurrence and development of MCNCD, develop measures to eliminate (mitigate) RFs, and increase the effectiveness of preventive and dispensary measures.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a method for individual prediction of the risk of multiple chronic non-communicable diseases in people over working age, based on the methods of modeling and predicting, as well as the analysis of the influence of medico-social risk factors on the occurrence and development of these diseases.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The intensity of MCNCD was assessed in 5.170 people aged 60 to 91 years and older with targeted preventive check-ups. The group of patients with MCNCD included subjects with 2 or more diseases (hypertension, coronary heart disease, acute cerebrovascular accident, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, asthma). For modeling and predicting, medical and social determinants and normalized intensive indicators were analyzed, RFs were determined, and a prediction matrix of the MCNCD occurrence was developed. Multivariate analysis of variance was used.

RESULTS

The proposed methods for predicting the MCNCD occurrence in POWA help to detect a significant probability of the occurrence and development of these diseases based on medical and social risk factors and to increase the effectiveness of preventive and dispensary measures.

CONCLUSION

The proposed methodology for predicting the occurrence of multiple chronic non-communicable diseases provides healthcare professionals the opportunity to obtain information on the risk of developing these conditions in outpatient settings based on medical and social risk factors in people over working age, determine the necessary scope of examinations, develop dispensary measures, and assess their effectiveness.

Keywords:

modeling

prediction

multiple chronic non-communicable diseases

people over working age

medical and social risk factors

Authors:

A.N. Galiullin

Kazan Federal University, Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology

ORCID: 0000-0002-1294-4055

R.F. Gaifullina

Kazan Federal University, Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology

ORCID: 0000-0002-0922-5850

D.A. Galiullin

Charitable Foundation «Yardem — Help»

ORCID: 0000-0002-8878-2777

L.A. Yusupova

Kazan State Medical Academy — Branch Campus of the Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education

ORCID: 0000-0001-8937-2158

A.F. Galimzyanov

Interregional clinical diagnostic center

ORCID: 0000-0003-1578-7814

A.R. Yusupov

Kazan State Medical University

ORCID: 0009-0005-5625-4565

Received:

13.09.2024

Accepted:

07.02.2025

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References:

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