The risk of overall mortality and cardiovascular mortality depending on the direction of body weight dynamics: a prospective cohort study

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OBJECTIVE

To study the influence of the direction of the dynamics of BW on the formation of the risk of general and cardiovascular mortality in a cohort prospective study of an unorganized population in the city of Tomsk.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The results of a 10-year follow-up of men and women with a studied previous 17-year BW dynamics are presented. 1.089 people aged 37-76 were examined. Depending on the direction of the BW dynamics, the following groups were distinguished: 1) BW decreased by more than 5%; 2) stable BW (±5% of baseline); 3) BW increased by more than 5%. During the observation period, 166 people died.

RESULTS

In a prospective cohort 10-year study in individuals with a previously established decrease in BW compared with those in whom BW did not change, an increase in the risk of total mortality by 1.76 times was found; cardiovascular mortality by 1.73 times. In individuals with abdominal obesity, BW loss was also associated with higher overall and cardiovascular mortality. The lowest 10-year risk of overall and cardiovascular mortality was observed in individuals who experienced an increase in BW by more than 5%, compared with individuals in whom BW did not change or decreased.

CONCLUSION

When assessing the risk of general and cardiovascular mortality, it is necessary to take into account not only the current indicator of body weight, but also the direction of body weight dynamics.

Keywords:

cardiovascular disease

body weight

obesity

sarcopenia

obesity paradox

mortality

Authors:

Dolgalev I.V.

Siberian State Medical University

Ivanova A.Yu.

Siberian State Medical University

ORCID: 0000-0002-0497-7666

Received:

16.02.2022

Accepted:

23.02.2022

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