BACKGROUND

The research of skin diseases is warranted by their prevalence, development of chronic forms, exacerbations, and the occurrence of difficult to treat conditions.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze long-term trends and predict medium-term dermatological morbidity in rural areas population specializing in cotton, fruit and vegetable growing.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The analysis of dermatological morbidity statistics of rural populations for two five-year periods (2007–2011 and 2014–2018) was performed.

RESULTS

Skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases were ranked 10th in the cotton-growing area in 2007–2011 and 7th in the horticultural area, and 11th and 15th respectively in 2014–2018. Five-year average increase rate of dermatological diseases prevalence and incidence in 2007–2011 was negative, but among population of cotton-growing area it was up to 3.3 times higher than in horticultural area. In 2014–2018, the increase rate remained negative in the horticultural area and positive in the cotton-growing area. A higher rate of dermatological diseases with a chronic course was observed in the cotton-growing area. Cases number of class XII diseases per 10.000 population were, on average, up to 4.2 times lower in 2014–2018 compared to 2007–2011 (p<0.001). The morbidity prediction for the first five-year observation period proved correct, and the medium-term forecast for the second five-year period indicated some stabilization of dermatological morbidity and its probable further decrease in rural areas of Uzbekistan.

CONCLUSION

We believe that the observed decrease in the incidence of skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases is due to ongoing full-scale reforms in the rural health system and the implementation of the crop diversification policy based on a drastic reduction in the use of pesticides and mineral fertilizers.