Prognostic model and calculator for assessing the risk of prolonged pleural effusion after lobectomy

Shagdaleev R.F.; Toneev E.A.; Martynov A.A.; Belova M.A.; Teryagova A.D.

doi:https://doi.org/10.17116/hirurgia202506126

Shagdaleev R.F.

Ulyanovsk State University

ORCID: 0009-0004-0218-666X

Toneev E.A.

Ulyanovsk State University;
Regional Oncology Dispensary

ORCID: 0000-0001-8590-2350

Martynov A.A.

Regional Oncology Dispensary

ORCID: 0000-0002-4304-5896

Belova M.A.

Ulyanovsk State University

ORCID: 0000-0003-2781-6184

Teryagova A.D.

Ulyanovsk State University

ORCID: 0009-0005-0939-2287

Prognostic model and calculator for assessing the risk of prolonged pleural effusion after lobectomy

Authors:

Shagdaleev R.F., Toneev E.A., Martynov A.A., Belova M.A., Teryagova A.D.

More about the authors

Journal: Pirogov Russian Journal of Surgery. 2025;(6): 26‑34

DOI: 10.17116/hirurgia202506126

Read: 844 times

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To cite this article:

Shagdaleev RF, Toneev EA, Martynov AA, Belova MA, Teryagova AD. Prognostic model and calculator for assessing the risk of prolonged pleural effusion after lobectomy. Pirogov Russian Journal of Surgery. 2025;(6):26‑34. (In Russ.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/hirurgia202506126

Подписка 2026 Хирургия. Журнал им. Н.И. Пирогова (Pirogov Russian Journal of Surgery)

Использование инфографики авторами научных работ

OBJECTIVE

To develop a nomogram and risk assessment calculator for prolonged pleural effusion after lobectomy for lung cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study was conducted at the Thoracic Oncology Surgery Department of the Ulyanovsk Regional Oncology Dispensary. Patients who underwent lobectomy between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2024 were included (database registration state No. 2024622456). There were 78 patients including 48 ones without prolonged pleural effusion (PPE) and 30 ones with this complication. After statistical analysis, data bootstrapping and logistic regression calibration based on artificial intelligence machine learning were carried out.

RESULTS

The incidence of PPE was 30/78 (39%). Multivariate statistical analysis revealed the following significant factors: neutrophil-lymphocyte index after 4—5 days, leukocyte count in pleural fluid after 2 and 4—5 days, as well as drainage output after 4—5 days. Prognostic model showed high sensitivity (71%) and specificity (89.4%). A decision tree was obtained depending on surgical approach.

CONCLUSION

The first prognostic model and interactive calculator for assessing the risk of PPE after lobectomy were developed.

Keywords:

lung cancer

prolonged pleural effusion

lobectomy

prognostic model

calculator

machine learning

artificial intelligence

decision tree

Authors:

Shagdaleev R.F.

Ulyanovsk State University

ORCID: 0009-0004-0218-666X

Toneev E.A.

Ulyanovsk State University;
Regional Oncology Dispensary

ORCID: 0000-0001-8590-2350

Martynov A.A.

Regional Oncology Dispensary

ORCID: 0000-0002-4304-5896

Belova M.A.

Ulyanovsk State University

ORCID: 0000-0003-2781-6184

Teryagova A.D.

Ulyanovsk State University

ORCID: 0009-0005-0939-2287

Received:

19.08.2024

Accepted:

30.10.2024

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References:

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