Predicting the probability of development and progression of primary open angle glaucoma by regression modeling

Likhvantseva V.G.; Sokolov V.A.; Levanova O.N.; Kovelenova I.V.

doi:https://doi.org/10.17116/oftalma2018134335

Likhvantseva V.G.

Tsentral'naia klinicheskaia bol'nitsa RAN, Moskva

Sokolov V.A.

Ryazan State Medical University named after acad. I.P. Pavlov, Ministry of Health of Russia, 9 Vysokovol’tnaya St., Ryazan, Russian Federation, 390026

Levanova O.N.

Ryazan State Medical University named after acad. I.P. Pavlov, Ministry of Health of Russia, 9 Vysokovol’tnaya St., Ryazan, Russian Federation, 390026

Kovelenova I.V.

Ulyanovsk Regional Clinical Hospital, 3 Internatsionala St., Ulyanovsk, Russia, 320176

Predicting the probability of development and progression of primary open angle glaucoma by regression modeling

Authors:

Likhvantseva V.G., Sokolov V.A., Levanova O.N., Kovelenova I.V.

More about the authors

Journal: Russian Annals of Ophthalmology. 2018;134(3): 35‑41

DOI: 10.17116/oftalma2018134335

Read: 1483 times

Download PDF (RU)

Contact the author

Table of contents

To cite this article:

Likhvantseva VG, Sokolov VA, Levanova ON, Kovelenova IV. Predicting the probability of development and progression of primary open angle glaucoma by regression modeling. Russian Annals of Ophthalmology. 2018;134(3):35‑41. (In Russ.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/oftalma2018134335

Подписка 2026 Вестник офтальмологии (Russian Annals of Ophthalmology)

Использование инфографики авторами научных работ

Close metadata

Abstract:

Prediction of the clinical course of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is one of the main directions in solving the problem of vision loss prevention and stabilization of the pathological process. Simple statistical methods of correlation analysis show the extent of each risk factor’s impact, but do not indicate the total impact of these factors in personalized combinations. The relationships between the risk factors is subject to correlation and regression analysis. The regression equation represents the dependence of the mathematical expectation of the resulting sign on the combination of factor signs. Purpose: to develop a technique for predicting the probability of development and progression of primary open-angle glaucoma based on a personalized combination of risk factors by linear multivariate regression analysis. Material and methods. The study included 66 patients (23 female and 43 male; 132 eyes) with newly diagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma. The control group consisted of 14 patients (8 male and 6 female). Standard ophthalmic examination was supplemented with biochemical study of lacrimal fluid. Concentration of matrix metalloproteinase MMP-2 and MMP-9 in tear fluid in both eyes was determined using «sandwich» enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method. Results. The study resulted in the development of regression equations and step-by-step multivariate logistic models that can help calculate the risk of development and progression of POAG. Those models are based on expert evaluation of clinical and instrumental indicators of hydrodynamic disturbances (coefficient of outflow ease — C, volume of intraocular fluid secretion — F, fluctuation of intraocular pressure), as well as personalized morphometric parameters of the retina (central retinal thickness in the macular area) and concentration of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in the tear film. Conclusion. The newly developed regression equations are highly informative and can be a reliable tool for studying of the influence vector and assessment of pathogenic potential of the independent risk factors in specific personalized combinations.

Keywords:

primary open-angle glaucoma

regression equations

matrix metalloproteinase

Authors:

Likhvantseva V.G.

Tsentral'naia klinicheskaia bol'nitsa RAN, Moskva

Sokolov V.A.

Ryazan State Medical University named after acad. I.P. Pavlov, Ministry of Health of Russia, 9 Vysokovol’tnaya St., Ryazan, Russian Federation, 390026

Levanova O.N.

Ryazan State Medical University named after acad. I.P. Pavlov, Ministry of Health of Russia, 9 Vysokovol’tnaya St., Ryazan, Russian Federation, 390026

Kovelenova I.V.

Ulyanovsk Regional Clinical Hospital, 3 Internatsionala St., Ulyanovsk, Russia, 320176

Close metadata

References:

Leske MC, Wu SY, Hennis A. Risk factors for incident open-angle glaucoma: the Barbados Eye Studies. Ophthalmology. 2008;115:85-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ophtha.2007.03.017
Aleshaev MI. Faktory riska razvitija pervichnoj otkrytougol’noj glaukomy. Uchebnoe posobie dlja vrachej. Penza: GOU DPO PIU; 2009. (In Russ.)
Graham KL, McCowan C, White A. Genetic and Biochemical Biomarkers in Canine Glaucoma. Vet Pathol. 2017;54(2):194-203. https://doi.org/10.1177/0300985816666611
Sokolov VA, Levanova ON. Role of matrix metalloproteinases in the pathogenesis of primary open-angle glaucoma. Rossiiskii Mediko-biologicheskii vestnik im. akad. I.P. Pavlova. Ryazan’. 2013;21(3):136-141. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17816/pavlovj20132136-141
Alexander JP. Expression of matrix metalloproteinases and inhibitor by human trabecular meshwork. Invest Ophthamol Vis sci. 1991;32:172-180. https://doi.org/10.1167/iovs.13-13630
Agapova OA, Ricard CS, Salvador-Silva M, Hernandez MR. Expression of matrix metalloproteinases and tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases in human optic nerve head astrocytes. Glia. 2001;33(3):205-216.
Chintala SK, Zhang X. Deficiency in matrix metalloproneinase gelatinase B (MMP-9) protec retinal ganglion cell death a nerve ligation. Biol Chem. 2002;277(49):47461-47468. https://doi.org/10.1074/jbc.m204824200
Gu Z. A highly specific inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-9 rescues laminin from proteolysis and neurons from apoptosis in transient focal cerebra ischemia. J Neurosci. 2005;25(27):6401-6408. https://doi.org/10.1523/jneurosci.1563-05.2005
Yan X. Matrix metalloproteinases and tumor necrosis factor alpha in glaucomatous optic nerve head. Arch Ophthalmol. 2000;118(5):666-673. https://doi.org/10.1001/archopht.118.5.666
Pena JD. Elastosis of the lamina cribrosa in glaucomatous optic neuropathy. Exp Eye Res. 1998;67(5):517-524. https://doi.org/10.1006/exer.1998.0539
De Groef L. MMPs in the trabecular meshwork: promising targetsor future glaucoma therapies? Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2013;54(12):7756-7763. https://doi.org/10.1167/iovs.13-13088
Ronkoo S, Rekonen P, Kaarnirata K. Matrix metalloproteinases and their inhibitors in the chamber angle of normal eyes and patient with primary open-angle glaucoma and exfoliation glaucoma. Greafe’s Arch Clin Exp Ophtalmology. 2007;245:697-700. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00417-006-0440-1
De Groef L. MMPs in the neuroretinaand optic nerve: modulators of glaucoma pathogenesis and repair? Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2014;55(3):1953-1964. https://doi.org/10.1167/iovs.13-13630
Alekseev VN, Egorov EA, Gazizova IR, Zaynullina SR. Predicting progressive glaucomatous optic neuropathy using the mathematical method. RMZh «Klinicheskaya Oftal’mologiya». 2015;4:169-171. (In Russ.)
Agafonova VV, Frankovska-Gerlak MZ, Sokolovskaya TV, Brizhak PE, Bessarabov AN. The role of the local and general somatic factors for the open-angle glaucoma development in patients with eye manifestations of pseudoexfoliation syndrome. Oftal’mokhirurgiya. 2013;3:60-65. (In Russ.)
Gordon MO, Torri V, Miglior S. Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study Group; European Glaucoma Prevention Study Group; Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Ophthalmology. 2007;114(1):10-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ophtha.2006.08.031
Soljannikova OV, Berdnikova EV, Jekgardt VF, Bolotov AA, Tur EV. Forecasting of dynamics of visual functions in patients with primary open-angle glaucoma depending on the stage of the disease. Oftal’mologicheskie vedomosti. 2015;8(1):36-42. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17816/ov2015136-42
Karimov RN. Obrabotka ehksperimental’noj informacii. Uchebnoe Posobie. Saratov: SGTU;. 2000. (In Russ.)
Lichter P. Intraocular pressure fluctuation is a risk factor for visual field loss in glaucoma patients. American Academy of ophthalmology annual meeting. 2003;18:22-24.
Bengtsson B, Heijl A. Diurnal intraocular pressure fluctuation: not an independent risk factor for glaucomatos visual field lossin high-risk ocular hypertension. Graefes Arch Clin Exp Ophthalmol. 2005;243(6):513-518. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00417-004-1103-8
Gordon M. The Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study. Archives of Ophthalmology. 2002;120(6):714. https://doi.org/10.1001/archopht.120.6.714
Bengtsson B, Leske MC, Hyman L, Heijl A, et al. Fluctuation of intraocular pressure and glaucoma progression in early manifest glaucoma trial. Ophthalmology. 2007;114(2):205-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ophtha.2006.07.060
David R. Diurnal intraocular pressure variations: an analysis of 690 diurnal curves. Br J Ophthalmol. 1992;76(5):280-283. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjo.76.5.280
Choi J, Kim KH, Jeong J, Cho H, Lee CH, Kook MS. Circadian fluctuation of mean ocular perfusion pressure is a consistent risk factor for normal-tension glaucoma. Invest Ophthalmology. 2007;48(1):104-108. https://doi.org/10.1167/iovs.06-0615
Nouri-Mahdavi K, Hoffman D, Coleman AL, Liu G, Li G, Gaasterland D, Caprioli J. Predictive factors for glaucomatous visual field progression in the advanced glaucoma intervention study. Ophthalmology. 2004;111(9): 1627-1635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ophtha.2004.02.017