Purpose — to develop a mathematical model for predicting the development of threshold stages (type 1) of active retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) based on neonatal risk factors in premature infants. Material and methods. The study observed 69 premature infants from a perinatal center with gestation age of 22—31 weeks and birth weight of 499—1500 grams. Patients were divided into 2 groups depending on the type of ROP: the main group — 40 infants with a threshold stage (type 1) of ROP, requiring laser treatment; the control group — 29 children with spontaneous regression of the initial (1—2) stages (type 2) of the disease. A model for predicting the development of ROP threshold stage was built using mathematical justification. Results. The study established potential predictors of type 1 ROP: staying in the intensive care unit for more than 30 days (p=0.011); duration of child’s staying on mechanical ventilator more than 30 days (p=0.002); parenteral nutrition for more than 13 days (p=0.013); presence of respiratory distress syndrome of 3rd degree (p<0.001); presence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (p=0.034). These predictors were used to design a mathematical model for predicting the development of threshold stages of ROP. Conclusion. The proposed prognostic model of type 1 active ROP is characterized by high information content and can be recommended for use in clinical practice of neonatal medical institutions.