Uncertainty estimate in calculation of ingested ethanol

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OBJECTIVE

To develop a method of uncertainty estimate in calculation of ingested ethanol by E. Widmark formula and its realization as a computer program.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The methodological design of the study was an analytical construction of the equation of uncertainty estimates of the mass of ingested ethanol, obtained on the basis of E. Widmark kinetic model. Mathematical analysis operations were performed independently, as well as using WolframAlfa web application. The computer program code was compiled in the C# programming language using the free version of Microsoft Visual Studio application.

RESULTS

The equation of uncertainty estimate of the mass of ingested ethanol, obtained on the basis of E. Widmark kinetic equation, with standard deviation of the sought value as its measure has been derived. The Alcohol Calculator V 5.0 application was created in the C# programming language. This program implements a complex of computational procedures related to the use of developed uncertainty equation, and allows to determine the confidence error intervals for estimates of ingested ethanol for any probability of error.

CONCLUSION

The obtained equation of uncertainty estimates of the mass of ingested ethanol and the computer application implementing it are recommended for forensic medical evaluation of the kinetics of orally administered ethanol.

Keywords:

ethanol kinetics

uncertainty

measurement error

mathematical modeling

Authors:

Nedugov G.V.

Samara State Medical University

ORCID: 0000-0002-7380-3766

Received:

03.04.2023

Accepted:

03.07.2023

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