OBJECTIVE

To study the predictive value of chronic non-communicable diseases’ risk factors of lung cancer (LC) development in population cohort of elderly people (Novosibirsk).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study was performed on representative population sample (Novosibirsk), investigated as a part of the HAPIEE international project in 2003—2005 yrs. The analysis included 6023 subjects, in 114 of which (94 men and 20 women) had been diagnosed LC for 15-year-long observation period (2003—2019 yrs.). The cases were identified by comparing the cancer register with the use of ICD-10 and project’s databases. Cox regression methods were used to analyze the association of risk factors and LC.

RESULTS

It was established in multivariant model that 15-year-long risk of LC development in men was higher than in women (HR=2.78; 95% CI: 1.49—5.16). The risk of LC is positively associated with the age of men (HR for 1 year was 1.12; 95% CI: 1.08—1.16). The risk of LC is 8 times higher in smoking men, and 2.7 times higher in men, who smoked before, compared to nonsmoking men. In males the risk rises with increased intensity of smoking: from HR=3.74; 95% CI: 1.06—13.30 for those who smokes 9 or less cigarettes per day to HR=4.29; 95% CI: 1.59—11.62 for those who smokes 10—19 cigarettes per day and to HR=13.58; 95% CI: 5.69—32.40 for those who smokes more than 20 cigarettes. The risk of LC is reduced in males with a body mass index above 25 kg/m² (HR=0.42; 95% CI: 0.28—0.64), as well as with blood glucose level above 6.1 mmol/L (HR=0.68; 95% CI: 0.51—0.89). Secondary and primary education was also associated with LC risk in men (HR=2.17; 95% CI: 1.19—3.95 and HR=3.39; 95% CI: 1.78—6.49).

CONCLUSION

The risk of lung cancer development is positively associated with male sex. Positive associations with age, smoking and low level of education probably show valid biological and social reasons. Negative associations with hyperglycemia, overweight and obesity can at least partly be explained by an inverse causal relation.