Prognostic value of risk factors for non-infectious diseases in workers of a poultry enterprise (according to an 8-year prospective study)

Bastrikov O.Yu.; Grigoricheva E.A.

doi:https://doi.org/10.17116/profmed20212407122

Bastrikov O.Yu.

Southern Ural State Medical University

Grigoricheva E.A.

Southern Ural State Medical University

Prognostic value of risk factors for non-infectious diseases in workers of a poultry enterprise (according to an 8-year prospective study)

Authors:

Bastrikov O.Yu., Grigoricheva E.A.

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Journal: Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2021;24(7): 22‑29

DOI: 10.17116/profmed20212407122

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To cite this article:

Bastrikov OYu, Grigoricheva EA. Prognostic value of risk factors for non-infectious diseases in workers of a poultry enterprise (according to an 8-year prospective study). Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2021;24(7):22‑29. (In Russ.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/profmed20212407122

Подписка 2026 Профилактическая медицина (Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine)

Использование инфографики авторами научных работ

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OBJECTIVE

To conduct a comprehensive assessment of the factors for the development of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) based on the data of an 8-year prospective study and, develop a prognostic scale based on the information received.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A two-stage study was carried out — a one-stage continuous study of an organized population (400 patients) followed by an 8-year prospective observation of a cohort of practically healthy people (193 respondents). Studied indicators of the first stage: sociodemographic characteristics; clinical and physical indicators; behavioral factors; family history of early cardiovascular disease; professional interview and the degree of labor intensity; psychological characteristics; laboratory indicators; indicators of remodeling of the heart and blood vessels. Studied indicators of the II stage: intensive and extensive indicators.

RESULTS

During the 8-year follow-up, the number of NCDs cases was 146 (75.6%). During the above period, the new cases of diseases were revealed. One case belonged to the ICD-10 class «Neoplasms» that amounted to 0.5% of the study group. The 10 (5.2% of the study group) — to the class «Diseases of the blood...». The 21 (10.8%) — to the class «Diseases of the endocrine system...». The 68 (36.2%) — to the class «Diseases of the circulatory system». The 11 (5.7%) — to the class «Diseases of the respiratory system». The 20 (10.4%) — to the class «Diseases of the digestive system». The one (0.5%) — to the class «Diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue». The 2 (1%) — to the class «Diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue». The 12 (6.2%) — to the class «Diseases of the genitourinary system». Significant factors of the studied outcomes were the following: marital status (divorced), smoking index (pack/years), the level of total fractions of dinitrophenylhydrazones at a wavelength of 270 nm, the presence of atherosclerotic plaque of the brachiocephalic arteries, blood flow velocity in the middle cerebral artery.

CONCLUSION

Risk factors for identified NCDs according to an 8-year prospective study were the following: social isolation based on self-reported results; smoking; products of free radical proteins’ oxidation; morphological, hemodynamic changes in the brachiocephalic arteries and vessels of the brain. The calculator program developed on the obtained multivariate model allows determining the individual total prognosis of the risk of NCDs, to outline a plan of treatment and prophylactic measures in a specific population.

Keywords:

non-communicable diseases

risk factors

multivariate predictive model

Authors:

Bastrikov O.Yu.

Southern Ural State Medical University

Grigoricheva E.A.

Southern Ural State Medical University

Received:

28.02.2021

Accepted:

18.03.2021

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