OBJECTIVE
To estimate the predicted 10-year survival rate in the unorganized population of males and females of working age in the Vladimir region.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
In five cities of the Vladimir region (Vladimir, Kovrov, Murom, Yuryev-Polsky and Vyazniki), a cross-sectional population study was conducted from May 2018 to March 2020. In six medical institutions, nine therapeutic sites were selected, and according to the lists of the registered population aged 30—69 years, respondents were invited to the study from each site. The response rate was 87%. A total of 1.174 subjects completed the study, including 424 (36.1%) males and 750 (63.9%) females. The respondents were interviewed using a standard questionnaire developed by the National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine of the Ministry of Health of Russia. The questionnaire included information on socio-demographic indicators, behavioral risk factors, the presence of somatic diseases and illicit drug use. Instrumental and laboratory tests specified for the first stage of the check-up were performed. The Charlson comorbidity index was used to assess the 10-year survival of individuals.
RESULTS
A combination of three somatic diseases was observed in every eighth male and twice less frequently in females (p=0.0006). Based on the frequency of combination and the severity of somatic diseases, one in ten males had a low predicted survival rate in the next 10 years. In females, the frequency of predicted low 10-year survival was 1/3 less (p=0.03). 40% of respondents had an average predicted 10-year survival due to a combination of two or more diseases. The analysis of the predicted frequency of low 10-year survival in different cities showed its low variability. However, in Vladimir and Kovrov, the proportion of males with a low 10-year survival rate was 3—4% higher compared to the other three cities. A similar trend in the predicted low survival of females was observed in Vladimir and Vyazniki.
CONCLUSION
In the unorganized population, the frequency of combination of three somatic diseases in males is 2 times higher than in females. The predicted low 10-year survival rate is determined in every tenth male and slightly less frequent in females.
