Monitoring and evaluation of tobacco control policies: international practices. Part 3. Evaluation of the effects of tobacco control measures: predictive models and natural experiment methods

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Tobacco smoking is a global problem, and the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) of the World Health Organization (WHO) is oriented to its overcoming all over the world. The extent to which political and legislative measures can contribute to reduction of smoking, morbidity and mortality from tobacco-related diseases, may be determined by systematic monitoring and evaluation of the effects of tobacco control legislations. There is a considerable global experience in assessing the effects of tobacco control policies in different countries. The series of three articles summarizes the international evaluation of tobacco control policies experience, based on WHO official statistics (part 1), results of population surveys (part 1, 2), results of investigations using the Predictive models and methodologies of natural experiments (part 3). This article presents the international experience in evaluation of the effects of WHO FCTC measures, based on the studies using predictive models and natural experiment methods.

Keywords:

tobacco control policies

FCTC of WHO

tobacco control legislative measures

monitoring and evaluation of tobacco control policies

natural experiment methods

the «interrupted time series» method

the «synthetic control» method

SimSmoke simulation models

Authors:

Gambaryan M.G.

National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine

SPIN RSCI: 9630-8272
Scopus AuthorID: 6507258607
ORCID: 0000-0003-4018-8645

Received:

13.02.2023

Accepted:

04.05.2023

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