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Gambaryan M.G.

National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine

Monitoring and evaluation of tobacco control policies: international practices. Part 3. Evaluation of the effects of tobacco control measures: predictive models and natural experiment methods

Authors:

Gambaryan M.G.

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Journal: Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2023;26(8): 15‑21

DOI: 10.17116/profmed20232608115

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MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF TOBACCO CONTROL POLICIES: INTERNATIONAL PRACTICES. PART 3. EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF TOBACCO CONTROL MEASURES: PREDICTIVE MODELS AND NATURAL EXPERIMENT METHODS
MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF TOBACCO CONTROL POLICIES: INTERNATIONAL PRACTICES. PART 3. EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF TOBACCO CONTROL MEASURES: PREDICTIVE MODELS AND NATURAL EXPERIMENT METHODS

To cite this article:

Gambaryan MG. Monitoring and evaluation of tobacco control policies: international practices. Part 3. Evaluation of the effects of tobacco control measures: predictive models and natural experiment methods. Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2023;26(8):15‑21. (In Russ.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/profmed20232608115

Подписка 2026 Профилактическая медицина (Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine)
МСФ на ЯМ
Использование инфографики авторами научных работ
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Abstract:

Tobacco smoking is a global problem, and the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) of the World Health Organization (WHO) is oriented to its overcoming all over the world. The extent to which political and legislative measures can contribute to reduction of smoking, morbidity and mortality from tobacco-related diseases, may be determined by systematic monitoring and evaluation of the effects of tobacco control legislations. There is a considerable global experience in assessing the effects of tobacco control policies in different countries. The series of three articles summarizes the international evaluation of tobacco control policies experience, based on WHO official statistics (part 1), results of population surveys (part 1, 2), results of investigations using the Predictive models and methodologies of natural experiments (part 3). This article presents the international experience in evaluation of the effects of WHO FCTC measures, based on the studies using predictive models and natural experiment methods.

Keywords:

tobacco control policies
FCTC of WHO
tobacco control legislative measures
monitoring and evaluation of tobacco control policies
natural experiment methods
the «interrupted time series» method
the «synthetic control» method
SimSmoke simulation models

Authors:

Gambaryan M.G.

National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine

Received:

13.02.2023

Accepted:

04.05.2023

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References:

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