The research objective was to study diagnostic informational content of change of concentration a hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF-1α) in gingival liquid of patients for assessment of risk of development of carious process. Material and methods. 75 patients with the diagnosis dentine caries entered the research: group 1 (n=30) involved patients with primary caries while group 2 (n=45) consisted of patients with caries recurrence in 12 months after treatment. Results. In all patients HIF-1α was determined in gingival liquid before treatment by the IFA method. Logistic regression and the ROC analysis were used for the statistical analysis. In group 2 the level of HIF-1α was two-fold higher than in group 1 (p<0.001) and 82% higher than in healthy individuals (p<0.001). The increased initial HIF-1α level of 98 pg/ml was associated with high risk of caries recurrence in 12 months after treatment with diagnostic sensitivity of 88.4% and diagnostic specificity of 78.1% with chances of development increased by 4 times (p<0.0001). The change of HIF-1α in gingival liquid from 80 pg/ml to 170 pg/ml increased the risk of caries recurrence 12 months from 13% up to 94%. Conclusion. The initial content in gingival liquid a hypoxia-inducible factor-1α higher than 98 pg/ml allows triage of patients with high risk of caries recurrence requiring dental monitoring for personification of preventive measures.