The site of the Media Sphera Publishers contains materials intended solely for healthcare professionals.
By closing this message, you confirm that you are a certified medical professional or a student of a medical educational institution.

Login
EN
+7 (495) 482-4118
+7 (495) 482-4329
+8 800 250-18-12
  • (toll-free number for subscriptions)
    Mon-Fri from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.

  • © 1998-2025
+7 (495) 482-43-29
EN
All journals
Journal
Year
Year
Search result: 0

Andreeva G.F.

FGBU "GNITs profilakticheskoĭ meditsiny" Minzdrava RF, Moskva

Gorbunov V.M.

FGBU "GNITs profilakticheskoĭ meditsiny" Minzdrava RF, Moskva

The main patterns of overall seasonal mortality and the factors influencing the latter

Authors:

Andreeva G.F., Gorbunov V.M.

More about the authors

Journal: Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2019;22(5): 143‑152

DOI: 10.17116/profmed201922051143

Read: 7038 times

Download PDF (RU)
Contact the author
Table of contents

THE MAIN PATTERNS OF OVERALL SEASONAL MORTALITY AND THE FACTORS INFLUENCING THE LATTER
THE MAIN PATTERNS OF OVERALL SEASONAL MORTALITY AND THE FACTORS INFLUENCING THE LATTER

To cite this article:

Andreeva GF, Gorbunov VM. The main patterns of overall seasonal mortality and the factors influencing the latter. Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2019;22(5):143‑152. (In Russ.)
https://doi.org/10.17116/profmed201922051143

Подписка 2026 Профилактическая медицина (Russian Journal of Preventive Medicine)
МСФ на ЯМ
Использование инфографики авторами научных работ
Close metadata
Abstract:

Abstract The review focuses on the key aspects of overall seasonal mortality. It presents a brief history of the issue. Examples of large-scale studies are used to consider the main patterns and specific features of seasonal mortality in the countries of different geographical zones, such as temperate, subequatorial, tropical, and subtropical ones. In addition, the review describes in detail the delayed mortality phenomenon and presents main trends in seasonal mortality in recent centuries, and its dynamics during the twentieth century, including those in introducing new technologies and scientific discoveries and in improving the quality of people’s life. A separate section is devoted to the main factors influencing the seasonal dynamics of mortality, such as sociodemographic, behavioral, macroeconomic, temperature, some climatic, and main environmental ones. The final section presents main prospects for the further development of this problem.

Keywords:

overall seasonal mortality
geographical features of seasonal mortality
socioeconomic factors and seasonal mortality

Authors:

Andreeva G.F.

FGBU "GNITs profilakticheskoĭ meditsiny" Minzdrava RF, Moskva

Gorbunov V.M.

FGBU "GNITs profilakticheskoĭ meditsiny" Minzdrava RF, Moskva

Close metadata

References:

  1. Alisov BP, Poltaraus BV. Klimatologiya. Uchebnik dlya studentov geograficheskih fakul’tetov universitetov, specializiruyushchihsya po meteorologii i klimatologii. Izdanie 2-e, pererab. i dopol. M. 1974;70-73. http://elib.rshu.ru/files_books/pdf/img-214142841.pdf
  2. Hollingsworth TH. Historical Demography. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 1969.
  3. Wrigley EA, Davies RS, Oeppen JE, Schofield RS. English population history from family reconstitution 1580–1837. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, cambridge studies in population, economy and society in past time 32 edition, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511660344
  4. Wrigley EA, Schofield RS. The Population History of England, 1541–1871. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1989.
  5. Guy WA. On the annual fluctuations in the number of deaths from various diseases, compared with like fluctuations in crime and in other events within and beyond the control of human will. Journal of the Statistical Society. 1858;21:52-86.
  6. Curwen M. Excess winter mortality: a British phenomenon? Health Trends. 1991;22:169-175.
  7. Mackenbach JP, Kunst AE, Looman CWN. Seasonal variation in mortality in The Netherlands. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1992;46:261-265. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.46.3.261
  8. McLoone P., Boddy F, et al. Seasonal variation in mortality in Scotland. Int J Epidemiol. 2000;29(2):274-279. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/29.2.274
  9. Healy JD. Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2003;57:784-789. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.10.784
  10. Fowler T, Southgate RJ, Waite T, et al. Excess Winter Deaths in Europe: A multi-country descriptive analysis. European Journal of Public Health. 2015 April;25(Issue 2):339-345. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/cku073
  11. Boytsov SA, Luk’yanov MM, Kontsevaya AV, et al. Features of seasonal mortality of the population from diseases of the circulatory system in the winter in the regions of the Russian Federation with different climatic and geographical characteristics. Ratsional’naya farmakoterapiya v kardiologii. 2013;9(6):627-632. https://doi.org/10.20996/1819-6446-2013-9-6-627-632
  12. Egondi T, Kyobutungi C, Kovats S, et al. Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi’s informal settlements. Glob Health Action. 2012;5:23-32. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v5i0.19065
  13. Mrema S, Shamte A, Selemani M, et al. The influence of weather on mortality in rural Tanzania: a time-series analysis. Glob Health Action. 2012;5:33-43. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v5i0.19068
  14. Rumisha SF, Smith T, Abdulla S, et al. Assessing seasonal variations and age patterns in mortality during the first year of life in Tanzania. Acta Trop. 2013;126:28-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2012.12.002
  15. Kachirayan M, Radhakrishna S, Ramakrishnan R, et al. Study of registered deaths in Madras City. Indian J Med Res. 1983;77:564-573.
  16. Motohashi Y, Takano T, Nakamura K, et al. Seasonality of mortality in Sri Lanka: Biometeorological considerations. Int J Biometeorol. 1996;39:121-126.
  17. Azongo DK, Awine T, Wak G, et al. A time series analysis of weather variability and all-cause mortality in the Kasena—Nankana Districts of Northern Ghana, 1995—2010. Glob Health Action. 2012;5:14-22. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v5i0.19073
  18. Egondi T, Kyobutungi C, Kovats S, et al. Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi’s informal settlements. Glob Health Action. 2012;5:23-32. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v5i0.19065
  19. Mcmichael AJ, Wilkinson P, Kovats RS, et al. International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: The ‘ISOTHURM’ project. Int J Epidemiol. 2008;37(5):1121-1131. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyn086
  20. Kalkstein AJ. Regional similarities in seasonal mortality across the United States: an examination of 28 metropolitan statistical areas. PLoS One. 2013;29:8(5):e63971. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0063971
  21. Shumway RH, Azari AS, Pawitan Y. Modeling mortality fluctuations in Los Angeles as functions of pollution and weather effects. Environ Res. 1988;45(2):224-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-9351(88)80049-5
  22. Seretakis D, Lagiou P, Lipworth L, et al. Changing seasonality of mortality from coronary heart disease. JAMA. 1997;278:1012-1014.
  23. Wyndham CH, Fellingham SA. Climate and disease. S Afr Med J. 1978;53:1051-1061.
  24. Aylin P, Morris S, Wakefield J, et al. Temperature, housing, deprivation and their relationship to excess winter mortality in Great Britain, 1986-1996. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2001;30:1100-1108. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/30.5.1100
  25. Rau R. Seasonality in Human Mortality Demographic Research Monographs. Springer. 2007. ISBN 978-3-540-44902-7
  26. Bideau A, Dupˆaquier J, Biraben¨e J. La mortalit´e de 1800 `a 1914. In Jacques Dupˆaquier, editor, Histoire de la population franecaise 3. De 1789 `a 1914. Presses Universitaires de France, Paris (France). 1988.
  27. McKeown T, Record RG. Reasons for the Decline of Mortality in England and Wales during the Nineteenth Century. Population Studies. 1962;16:94-122. https://doi.org/10.2307/2173119
  28. Curwen M, Devis T. Winter mortality, temperature and influenza: has the relationship changed in recent years? Population Trends. 1988;54:17-20.
  29. McDowall M. Long-term trends in seasonal mortality. Population Trends. 1981;26:16-19.
  30. Nathan S. Short and medium term variations in mortality in Finland. PhD thesis, Department of Public Health Service, University of Oulu, Finland, 1980.
  31. Carson C, Hajat S, Armstrong B, Wilkinson P. Declining Vulnerability to Temperature-related Mortality in London over the 20th Century. Am J Epidemiol. 2006;164(1):77-84. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwj147
  32. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B. Time Series Regression Analysis. Centre for Statistical Methodology. 2013. https://csm.lshtm.ac.uk/centre-themes/time-series-regression-analysis/
  33. Hajat S, Armstrong BG, Gouveia N, et al. Mortality displacement of heat-related deaths: a comparison of Delhi, Sao Paulo, and London. Epidemiology. 2005;16(5):613-620.
  34. Saha MV, Davis RE, Hondula DM. Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities. Am J Epidemiol. 2014;15:179(4):467-474. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwt264
  35. Rocklöv J, Forsberg B, Meister K. Winter mortality modifies the heat-mortality association the following summer. Eur Respir J. 2009;33:245-251. https://doi.org/10.1183/09031936.00037808
  36. Ballester F, Corella D, Pérez-Hoyos S, et al. Mortality as a function of temperature. A study in Valencia, Spain, 1991—1993. Int J Epidemiol. 1997;26(3):551-561.
  37. Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Bucher K, et al. Winter mortality in relation to climate. Int J Circumpolar Health. 2000;59(3-4):154-159. PMID: 11209660
  38. Kontsevaya AV, Luk’yanov MM, Hudyakov MB, et al. Seasonal and monthly changes in mortality in regions of the Russian Federation with different climatic and geographical characteristics. Rossijskiy kardiologicheskiy zhurnal. 2014;115(11):25-30. https://doi.org/10.15829/1560-4071-2014-11-25-30
  39. Rocklöv J, Forsberg B. The effect of temperature on mortality in Stockholm 1998--2003: a study of lag structures and heatwave effects. Scand J Public Health. 2008;36(5):516-523. https://doi.org/10.1177/1403494807088458
  40. D’ippoliti D, Michelozzi P, Marino C, et al. The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the euroheat project. Environmental Health. 2010;9:37-45. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-9-37
  41. Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, et al. Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology. 2008;19(5):711-719. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e318176bfcd
  42. Steadman RG. The assessment of sultriness. Part II: Effects of wind, extra radiation and barometric pressure on apparent temperature. J Appl Meteorol. 1979;18(7):874-885. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1979)018<0874:TAOSPI>2.0.CO;2
  43. Boytsov SA, Kuznetsov AS, Luk’yanov MM, et al. The influence of abnormally high temperatures and air pollution in the summer months on the mortality of the population of Moscow and the possibility of predicting mortality using linear regression analysis models. Profilakticheskaya meditsina. 2013;16(6):63-70. ISSN: 2305-4948
  44. Analitis A, Katsouyanni K, Biggeri A. Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results From 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project. Am J Epidemiol. 2008;168(12):1397-1408. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn266
  45. Gouveia N, Hajat S, Armstrong B. Socioeconomic differentials in the temperature–mortality relationship in São paulo, Brazil. Int J Epidemiol. 2003;32(3):390-397. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyg077
  46. O’Neill MS, Hajat S, Zanobetti A, et al. Impact of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on the estimated associations of temperature and daily mortality. Int J Biometeorol. 2005;50(2):121-129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-005-0269-z
  47. Qian Z, He Q, Lin HM, et al. Part 2. Association of daily mortality with ambient air pollution, and effect modification by extremely high temperature in Wuhan, China. Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2010;154:91-217.
  48. Gemmell I, McLoone P, Boddy F, et al. Seasonal variation in mortality in Scotland Int. J Epidemiol. 2000;29(2):274-279. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/29.2.274
  49. McLoone P, Boddy FA. Deprivation and Mortality in Scotland: 1981 and 1991. Br Med J. 1994;309:1465-1470. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.309.6967.1465
  50. Shah S, Peacock J. Deprivation and excess winter mortality. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1999;53:499-502. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.53.8.499
  51. Hales S, Bakely T, Foster RH, et al. Seasonal patterns of mortality in relation to social factors. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2012;66:379-384. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2010.111864
  52. Kenny GP, Yardley J, Brown C. Heat stress in older individuals and patients with common chronic diseases. CMAJ. 2010;182(10):1053-1060. https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.081050
  53. Semenza JC, Rubin CH, Falter KH, et al. Heat-related deaths during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. N Engl J Med. 1996;335:84-90. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJM199607113350203
  54. Naughton MP, Henderson A, Mirabelli M, et al. Heat-related mortality during a 1999 heat wave in Chicago. Am J Prev Med. 2002;22:221-227.
  55. Kilbourne EM, Choi K, Jones TS, et al. Risk factors for heat stroke: a case-control study. JAMA. 1982;247:3332-3336. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1982.03320490030031
  56. Xu Y, Dadvand P, Barrera-Gomez J, et al. Differences on the effect of heat waves on mortality by sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2013;67:519-525. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2012-201899
  57. Greenberg JH, Bromberg J, Reed CM, et al. The epidemiology of heat-related deaths, Texas—1950, 1970–1979, and 1980. Am J Public Health. 1983;73:805-807. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.73.7.805
  58. The Eurowinter Group. Cold exposure and winter mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and all causes in warm and cold regions of Europe. Lancet. 1997;349(9062):1341-1346.
  59. Healy JD. Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2003;57:784-789. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.10.784
  60. Hajat S, Kovats PS, Lachowycz K. Heat-related and cold-related deaths in England and Wales: who is at risk? Occup Environ Med. 2007;64:93-100.
  61. Applegate WB, Runyan JW, Brasfield L, et al. Analysis of the 1980 heat wave in Memphis. J Am Geriatr Soc. 1981;29:337-342.
  62. Macfarlane A. Daily mortality and environment in English conurbations. II. Deaths during summer hot spells in Greater London. Environ Res. 1978;15:332-341. https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-9351(78)90115-9
  63. Saez M, Sunyer J, Castellsague J, et al. Relationship between weather temperature and mortality: a time series analysis approach in Barcelona. Int J Epidemiol. 1995;24:576-582. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/24.3.576
  64. Wainwright SH, Buchanan SD, Mainzer M, et al. Cardiovascular mortality — the hidden peril of heat waves. Prehosp Disaster Med. 1999;14(4):222-231.
  65. Ellis FP, Prince HP, Lovatt G, et al. Mortality and morbidity in Birmingham during the 1976 heatwave. Q J Med. 1980;49:1-8. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.qjmed.a067600
  66. Ballester F, Corella D, Perez-Hoyos S, et al. Mortality as a function of temperature: a study in Valencia, Spain, 1991—1993. Int J Epidemiol. 1997;26:551-561. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/26.3.551
  67. Wyndham CH, Fellingham SA. Climate and disease. S Afr Med J. 1978;53:1051-1061.
  68. Applegate WB, Runyan JW, Brasfield L, et al. Analysis of the 1980 heat wave in Memphis. J Am Geriatr Soc. 1981;29:337-342. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1981.tb01238.x Cited by: 54
  69. Ellis FP, Nelson F. Mortality in the elderly in a heat wave in New York City, August 1975. Environ Res. 1978;15:504-512. https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-9351(78)90129-9
  70. Rooney C, McMichael AJ, Kovats RS, et al. Excess mortality in England and Wales, and in Greater London, during the 1995 heatwave. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1998;52:482-486. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.52.8.482
  71. Chan EY, Goggins WB, Kim JJ, et al. A study of intracity variation of temperature-related mortality and socioeconomic status among the Chinese population in Hong Kong. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2010;66:322-327. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.10.784
  72. Xu W, Thach TQ, Chau YK, et al. Thermal stress associated mortality risk and effect modification by sex and obesity in an elderly cohort of Chinese in Hong Kong. Environ Pollut. 2013;178:288-293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2013.03.020
  73. Yang J, Liu HZ, Ou CQ, et al. Impact of heat wave in 2005 on mortality in Guangzhou, China. Biomed Environ Sci. 2013;26:647-654.
  74. Green H, Gilbert J, James R, Byard RW. An analysis of factors contributing to a series of deaths caused by exposure to high environmental temperatures. Am J Forensic Med Pathol. 2001;22:196-199.
  75. Kenny GP, Yardley J, Brown C. Heat stress in older individuals and patients with common chronic diseases. CMAJ. 2010;182(10):1053-1060. https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.081050
  76. The Eurowinter Group. Cold exposure and winter mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and all causes in warm and cold regions of Europe. Lancet. 1997;349(9062):1341-1346.
  77. Bainton D, Moore F, Sweetnam P. Temperature and deaths from ischaemic heart disease. Br J Prev Soc Med. 1977 Mar;31(1):49-53. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.31.1.49
  78. Boulay F, Berthier F, Sisteron O, et al. Seasonal Variation in Chronic Heart Failure Hospitalizations and Mortality in France. Circulation. 1999;100:280-286.
  79. Liu L, Breitner S, Pan X, et al. Associations between air temperature and cardio-respiratory mortality in the urban area of Beijing, China: a time-series analysis. Environ Health. 2011;10:51. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-10-51
  80. Oan W-H, Li L-A, Tsai M-J. Temperature extremes and mortality from coronary heart disease and cerebral infarction in elderly Chinese. The Lancet. 1995;345:353-355.
  81. Sheth T, Nair C, Muller J, Yusuf S. Increased winter mortality from acute myocardial infarction and stroke: the effect of age. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1999;33(7):1916-1919.
  82. Kaiser R, Rubin CH, Henderson A, et al. Heat-related death and mental illness during the 1999 Cincinnati heat wave. Am J Forensic Med Pathol. 2001;22:303-307.
  83. Revich BA. Heat waves as a risk factor for public health. Pul’monologiya. 2011;(4):34-37. https://doi.org/10.18093/0869-0189-2011-0-4-34-37
  84. Climate change: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group. I to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge. 2007.
  85. Department of Health. Heatwave plan 2012. Department of Health, London (2012). Available from: http://www.dh.gov.uk/prod_consum_dh/groups/dh_digitalassets/@dh/@en/documents/digitalasset/dh_134741.pdf
  86. Public Health England. Cold weather plan for England: making the case (2013). Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/252854/Cold_Weather_Plan_2013_Making_the_Case_final_v2.pdf
  87. Heffernan C, Jones L, Ritchie B, et al. Local health and social care responses to implementing the national cold weather plan. Journal of Public Health. 2018;40(3):461-466. https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdx120
  88. Masato G, Bone A, Charlton-Perez A, Cavany S, et al. Improving the Health Forecasting Alert System for Cold Weather and Heat-Waves In England: A Proof-of-Concept Using Temperature-Mortality Relationships. PLoS One. 2015;10(10):e0137804. eCollection 2015. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0137804
Contact the author
Email
Message
The publishing house "Media Sphere" does not provide treatment services, does not give recommendations on contacting medical institutions and specific specialists, on the prescription of medicines and dietary supplements.

Email Confirmation

An email was sent to test@gmail.com with a confirmation link. Follow the link from the letter to complete the registration on the site.

Email Confirmation

Contact us
If you have any questions, complaints or suggestions, please use this feedback form.
Email
Message
The publishing house "Media Sphere" does not provide treatment services, does not give recommendations on contacting medical institutions and specific specialists, on the prescription of medicines and dietary supplements.
Submit Application

You can become an author of one of our magazines, send a request and we will consider it in during the day.

Name
Phone
E-mail
Message
Login
Registration
E-mail
Password
Forgot Password?

Log in to the site using your account in one of the services

Password recovery
E-mail
Login
Register

We use cооkies to improve the performance of the site. By staying on our site, you agree to the terms of use of cооkies. To view our Privacy and Cookie Policy, please. click here.